Sigh... I'm willing to bet (and this is not a hard thing to bet on) that even bb(50) is independent of ZFC and similar, and Omega(1KB) is > 748 , which is at this point known to be independent of ZFC.... Please do not ask the LLM to break the universe :)
> Prior helps you anticipate anything: sports, markets […]. Our goal is to create the most powerful predictive intelligence in existence.
Assuming that it gets anywhere close to that goal, does it take into consideration the effects of its predictions on the markets and calculates a fixpoint? (Or, maybe more likely, how the resulting chaotic system will behave?)
There is no tool that can do what this tool is claiming to do. At best, it can make reasonable inferences based on data it has available using whatever model it is using (assuming it's not a fraud) but key parts of the world are irreducibly complex. They cannot be predicted and that is without the problem of reflexivity which you correctly highlight as an issue - even for a notionally perfect prediction engine.
Given enough compute and data, you could model every human on the planet at subatomic granularity and you'd a) be chaotically sensitive to initial conditions; b) be subject to random quantum fluctuations.
Tldr: dudes wife/kid die in an unpredictable accident so he builds a super computer that predicts things, and can even go back in time using probability. Interesting story.
I asked it how many predictions it'll get right by Q4 2030 and it seems fairly confident in itself:
68% Prior averages 71% to 75% directional quarterly accuracy by 2030, matching elite human forecasting teams.
That's not an unreasonable prediction but it's a little bit of a cop-out, especially the 51% bit.
Assuming that it gets anywhere close to that goal, does it take into consideration the effects of its predictions on the markets and calculates a fixpoint? (Or, maybe more likely, how the resulting chaotic system will behave?)
There is no tool that can do what this tool is claiming to do. At best, it can make reasonable inferences based on data it has available using whatever model it is using (assuming it's not a fraud) but key parts of the world are irreducibly complex. They cannot be predicted and that is without the problem of reflexivity which you correctly highlight as an issue - even for a notionally perfect prediction engine.
Given enough compute and data, you could model every human on the planet at subatomic granularity and you'd a) be chaotically sensitive to initial conditions; b) be subject to random quantum fluctuations.
Nice enough frontend though.
Tldr: dudes wife/kid die in an unpredictable accident so he builds a super computer that predicts things, and can even go back in time using probability. Interesting story.
this is basically technical astrology.