People keep giving examples like printed press, or whatever, but honestly the printed press did kill writing/drawing by hand. When was the last time you bought a hand written book or a hand painted picture?
Sure, they still exist, but they are priced and marketed towards a specific class of people, and not the mass. And with software it’s even harder as software was never targeted at the mass. Software was always a by product of a car, a tv, or your fridge. No ordinary folk ever said “I’m going to go a buy WinZip now”. They simply had a variant of WinZip available with whatever computer they bought. There is simply no category of people who are willing to pay for “high quality hand crafted software”, except for perhaps a few ideologically motivated people.
Software development “lost” because it was seen as “something that comes for free with a computer”, and not something that people have to actively buy, like they buy TVs, fridges, or paintings.
The printing press did displace the manual copying of manuscripts, which had insanely low bandwidth and generally kinda sucked for everyone involved. But for several hundred years after, until the industrial revolution and the mass production of mechanical typewriters, pretty much everything printed on a printing press was originally authored by hand. Even with typewriters handwriting lingered for quite a while, since they were very demanding in terms of skill, and all mistakes were permanent.
Arguably it's not until digital writing tools emerged handwriting was truly displaced. That made typing on a keyboard accessible enough that anyone with working hands can do it fairly easily.
People really need to stop finding one vaguely similar situation in the past and say "this is what will happen". The past is a different country, and the outcomes depend on many factors and aren't predestined.
Every other time that programming has gotten easier we got more (often worse) code, though some folks who made their livings exploiting the inefficiencies had to adapt. This will be the same.
This isn't the end of programming, it's the beginning of your broccoli haired nephews ability to program. It's also opening a whole new world of opportunity to those with real skill.
A world filled with mountains of terrible code is a world that will reward the very programers who are trying to fight that future today.
> This isn't the end of programming, it's the beginning of your broccoli haired nephews ability to program
Which is funny because that was the case 25+ years ago. We (the nephews) would create websites using PHP. It was common for 15, 16 years old teenagers to know more about tech than the adults. That's not the case anymore. So this time it might be different.
If someone comes with a pretty decent idea and execution, it doesn’t really matter if code was written by human or llm, does it? Like if the next torvalds ships something great in the open, who cares how was it written.
> it doesn’t really matter if code was written by human or llm
In theory no, but for a successful execution you must have people that understand what's going on, otherwise the competitor that understands will eat you.
> who cares how was it written.
In the pre AI era a lot of sw was written by interns, juniors, some bigcon consultants, some offshore indian or east-european dudes, it didn't even matter before.
One thing I keep discovering about the agentic era of programming is that all of the old lessons and bits of wisdom about programming are still valid. They're just 10 to 100x more important now that you can generate 10,000 lines in an hour.
e.g. Break your code up into loosely coupled modules, don't have leaky abstractions, don't have huge God files, have good black box end-to-end testing, do the design work before the implementation, do lots of automated testing, have good documentation, etc.
Here is another one that was always true, end users only care about the observable behavior of your program. Does it solve the problem in a performant way? Is it reliable?
And another one, it was common when you inherited a large code base that was mature and written before you to not have any clue how most of it worked.
We have to accept that the art of nudging the text around is just not part of producing code for money anymore.
I write code in my work, and enjoy it. I also write less directly because of llm's but get to read more (which I luckily also enjoy, as long as I understand what is going on). I think you made more of a snide comment and deep down you actually enjoy it ;-). I mean, who doesn't like to code. It's awesome. If not, i hope you find something fulfilling sooner rather than later.
I love to write code and solve problems in personal projects. I love to read interesting technical books. I love to learn certain new technologies.
I hate doing the same at work. I couldn’t care less about my CEO’s product, nor about our linting tips or dependency management rules. My PO can pretend he’s the owner of the company, my engineer colleagues that we are shipping the next google. I couldn’t care less. I do it because I get paid and because it’s my career.
So, it’s not like “you like coding or not”. It has nuances
Script kiddies aren't really a problem, but there's a place where technically competent CTO types can sooner/inexpensively solve problems with AI rather than documenting what they want done.
I find it interesting just how different the responses to this new tech are.
I wonder if there is an inverse correlation between "usage of local models" and "despair", or if I am just making that up.
It would make sense, I suppose, given that local models still come with quite the upfront cost. So a lot of people are experiencing LLMs purely through the user-hostile cloud.
I think AI brings in many problems. It also brings in new functionality for people unable or unwilling to write working programs on their own.
My number #1 gripe of AI is that you become dependent on external companies. I am no loner willing to go that route in general, but even less so when it comes to greedy US corporations that constantly abuse mankind.
My number #2 gripe is that AI is ... dumb. I am noticing this on youtube. So many fake-videos appearing, and while I in general do not watch them for the most part, they are incredibly deceitful. And ... dumb. It's just a waste of time to watch them, even more so than it is already a waste of time watching videos on youtube (I often have them just for background music in the browser, for music at the least).
AI also makes projects less interesting to contribute to. If 99% of the contributions come by AI, why would I want to be bothered to "get involved"? Ruby has this problem right now. Granted, AI is a helper tool, but boy, what a fake it is - Hiroshi Shibata suddenly has perfect english skills, but it is AI slop generated. So I am no longer "interacting" with humans but with the AI slop. That's not worth my time.
AI also is very ruthless against programming languages being bad in certain areas. Case in point: documentation. If AI can slop AI spam generate documentation, even if it is not perfect, whereas I need to manually search for ruby documentation while Google has crippled its search engine to become useless, then this is now a huge disadvantage I am at with. Searching for stuff takes time. Ruby is just an example here; you can extend this to many other projects, including non-programming languages. We need better documentation, but oddly enough the documentation is constantly getting worse in the last +5 years or so. AI skynet is cannibalizing us - people don't seem to realise or care. I somewhat gave up on trying to nudge people to seriously improve their documentation, they just don't seem to want to (not all, but most).
We've seen this cycle before with high-level languages or IDEs, where the bar for entry drops but the underlying complexity of building reliable systems remains the same.
Typing code by hand is dead I agree. But calling it the end of programming was bit weird though.
I use to write a lot of code everyday for more than 2 decades, but now with LLMs, I can get most of my code written by LLMs, and I make sure they write the code that I want to. Same as, when I had to manage a team of juniors.
Many interesting metaphors to find, "it's like the printing press", "it's like IDE's", "it's like going from hardwired programming to assembly language". At the same time it's unlike anything we've seen before. Interesting to see where the journey goes, I am along for the ride.
>It's not the end of programming, in the same way as the invention of the printing press wasn't "the end of drawing by hand".
The printing press let you scale copies of something already drawn. That is nothing like what AI is doing here which is making drawing easier. It's more like people now draw by hand using pens and pencils instead of scraping small rocks against bigger rocks. Technically you can still scrape rocks together, but everyone opts for the modern convenience of better tools.
>It's not the end of programming, in the same way as the birth of big tech wasn't the beginning of programming.
Considering big tech brought programming to the masses arguable big tech did begin programming as a thing people do.
Sure, they still exist, but they are priced and marketed towards a specific class of people, and not the mass. And with software it’s even harder as software was never targeted at the mass. Software was always a by product of a car, a tv, or your fridge. No ordinary folk ever said “I’m going to go a buy WinZip now”. They simply had a variant of WinZip available with whatever computer they bought. There is simply no category of people who are willing to pay for “high quality hand crafted software”, except for perhaps a few ideologically motivated people.
Software development “lost” because it was seen as “something that comes for free with a computer”, and not something that people have to actively buy, like they buy TVs, fridges, or paintings.
The printing press did displace the manual copying of manuscripts, which had insanely low bandwidth and generally kinda sucked for everyone involved. But for several hundred years after, until the industrial revolution and the mass production of mechanical typewriters, pretty much everything printed on a printing press was originally authored by hand. Even with typewriters handwriting lingered for quite a while, since they were very demanding in terms of skill, and all mistakes were permanent.
Arguably it's not until digital writing tools emerged handwriting was truly displaced. That made typing on a keyboard accessible enough that anyone with working hands can do it fairly easily.
comparing scribes to writers and artists and software developers is insane
This isn't the end of programming, it's the beginning of your broccoli haired nephews ability to program. It's also opening a whole new world of opportunity to those with real skill.
A world filled with mountains of terrible code is a world that will reward the very programers who are trying to fight that future today.
Which is funny because that was the case 25+ years ago. We (the nephews) would create websites using PHP. It was common for 15, 16 years old teenagers to know more about tech than the adults. That's not the case anymore. So this time it might be different.
In theory no, but for a successful execution you must have people that understand what's going on, otherwise the competitor that understands will eat you.
> who cares how was it written.
In the pre AI era a lot of sw was written by interns, juniors, some bigcon consultants, some offshore indian or east-european dudes, it didn't even matter before.
e.g. Break your code up into loosely coupled modules, don't have leaky abstractions, don't have huge God files, have good black box end-to-end testing, do the design work before the implementation, do lots of automated testing, have good documentation, etc.
Here is another one that was always true, end users only care about the observable behavior of your program. Does it solve the problem in a performant way? Is it reliable?
And another one, it was common when you inherited a large code base that was mature and written before you to not have any clue how most of it worked.
We have to accept that the art of nudging the text around is just not part of producing code for money anymore.
I write code in my work, and enjoy it. I also write less directly because of llm's but get to read more (which I luckily also enjoy, as long as I understand what is going on). I think you made more of a snide comment and deep down you actually enjoy it ;-). I mean, who doesn't like to code. It's awesome. If not, i hope you find something fulfilling sooner rather than later.
I hate doing the same at work. I couldn’t care less about my CEO’s product, nor about our linting tips or dependency management rules. My PO can pretend he’s the owner of the company, my engineer colleagues that we are shipping the next google. I couldn’t care less. I do it because I get paid and because it’s my career.
So, it’s not like “you like coding or not”. It has nuances
I wonder if there is an inverse correlation between "usage of local models" and "despair", or if I am just making that up.
It would make sense, I suppose, given that local models still come with quite the upfront cost. So a lot of people are experiencing LLMs purely through the user-hostile cloud.
…when was that?
My number #1 gripe of AI is that you become dependent on external companies. I am no loner willing to go that route in general, but even less so when it comes to greedy US corporations that constantly abuse mankind.
My number #2 gripe is that AI is ... dumb. I am noticing this on youtube. So many fake-videos appearing, and while I in general do not watch them for the most part, they are incredibly deceitful. And ... dumb. It's just a waste of time to watch them, even more so than it is already a waste of time watching videos on youtube (I often have them just for background music in the browser, for music at the least).
AI also makes projects less interesting to contribute to. If 99% of the contributions come by AI, why would I want to be bothered to "get involved"? Ruby has this problem right now. Granted, AI is a helper tool, but boy, what a fake it is - Hiroshi Shibata suddenly has perfect english skills, but it is AI slop generated. So I am no longer "interacting" with humans but with the AI slop. That's not worth my time.
AI also is very ruthless against programming languages being bad in certain areas. Case in point: documentation. If AI can slop AI spam generate documentation, even if it is not perfect, whereas I need to manually search for ruby documentation while Google has crippled its search engine to become useless, then this is now a huge disadvantage I am at with. Searching for stuff takes time. Ruby is just an example here; you can extend this to many other projects, including non-programming languages. We need better documentation, but oddly enough the documentation is constantly getting worse in the last +5 years or so. AI skynet is cannibalizing us - people don't seem to realise or care. I somewhat gave up on trying to nudge people to seriously improve their documentation, they just don't seem to want to (not all, but most).
Getting a really really artificial vibe about the content being pushed to this website :/
Making me feel less motivated to even come here to be honest
In the 01->asm revolution you needed people with roughly the same kind of talent, background and education. Just a different specialization.
Now, writing software is available to people who would have never been able to learn it before.
The printing press let you scale copies of something already drawn. That is nothing like what AI is doing here which is making drawing easier. It's more like people now draw by hand using pens and pencils instead of scraping small rocks against bigger rocks. Technically you can still scrape rocks together, but everyone opts for the modern convenience of better tools.
>It's not the end of programming, in the same way as the birth of big tech wasn't the beginning of programming.
Considering big tech brought programming to the masses arguable big tech did begin programming as a thing people do.