US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-the-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

(newsletter.semianalysis.com)

26 points | by felixdoerp 2 hours ago

4 comments

  • Humorist2290 22 minutes ago
    Interesting analysis. In it they say

      Worse, the burden [generating energy] increasingly falls on the buyer [data center developers]
    
    I don't believe this is worse, but appropriate. The grid is a shared resource, used by enterprise and individuals. If some class of consumers demand an outsized share of that resource, they should pay an outsized share of its maintenance and development. I don't see that happening.

    It's as if trucking companies flooded the highways with so many trucks that people couldn't commute to work anymore.

    • ZeroGravitas 13 minutes ago
      When the first wave of these datacenter stories came out, the utilities complained that they couldn't finance the work because the data centers refused to commit to paying for them over the longer term, leaving other ratepayers on the hook for the investment.

      This seems to further confirm that, though now the data centers are being portrayed as the victims in this.

      The sentence immediately following your quote:

      > securing grid-connected power now often requires developers to post substantial letters of credit, security deposits, or sign take-or-pay commitments to fund the generation built to serve their load.

      The question is, if they couldn't commit to paying the utility, how can they finance building their own independant grid equivalent? Did they find some other sucker to take on the risk?

  • alex_duf 1 hour ago
    What an absolute ecological disaster. If bubble there is, now would be a great time for it to pop.
    • Tade0 7 minutes ago
      As an (eastern) European this is to me a greater concern than the Russian invasion in terms of availability of gas for the winter, considering how so many of those places run on gas turbines.

      Putin only has a certain amount of the resource on tap and sells it to someone eventually. Meanwhile data centers will eat up whatever you throw at them at any price, especially that in principle they don't need to be connected to the grid, so I imagine setting up their power supply must take months at the longest.

      • rapsey 5 minutes ago
        The US has incredible gas reserves. Much more that can be expected with ships.
    • trhway 1 hour ago
      Alternatively the crisis can be used to accelerate right development - quickly build up solar farms and transmission lines. Both of these can be done quickly if there were a political will. Yet, that will is missing.

      So, we're talking 40GW. Lets see what China does:

      https://energyandcleanair.org/china-energy-and-emissions-tre...

      "In the first two months of 2026, China added:

      32.5 gigawatts (GW) of solar power capacity, down 18% from last year. 11 GW of wind power capacity, up 19% from last year. 20 GW of thermal power capacity, up 414% from last year. 1.2 GW of hydro power capacity, down 36% from last year. 1.2 GW of nuclear power capacity. "

      • cloudie78 18 minutes ago
        Right off the top of my head, to power a 500MW Datacenter we need:

        2.2-2.5 GWdc solar capacity which at 600W/panel amounts to 14-17sq mi plus additional 8-12GWh of storage to deal with nighttime, two-three days of cloud cover is not going to work with these numbers.

        Ballpark 5-7BN$

        Nuclear otoh, 1GW continuous - gives constant power, badly managed first of a kind (or first one after decades) build will be at around 10-15BN and that’ll cover two 500MW data centres.

        There’s also the second/third degree order effects nuclear power stations have of creating jobs and industrial manufacturing demand. To run a nuclear power station you need to employ 1000 people (engineers plus support staff) - that’s a small town’s worth of adults. So you’ll need a town with a school, hospitals, stores - those need staffing as well.

        Unfortunately building nuclear is not something that’s currently a feasible path as it requires patient capital and long term vision and planning.

        So gas turbines it is at around ~1BN$

      • clarionbell 35 minutes ago
        I like how balanced their energy mix is. It is very obvious that China is optimizing for capacity and availability. There isn't really a push for clean energy sources for political, or climate, reasons. They are deployed when it makes sense, backed up by robust coal and nuclear sources.

        In Europe, we approach energy generation as a political, or climate problem. We are building solar and wind power sources, not to make energy cheaper, or to make grid more resilient, but to fulfill an ideological goal.

        The results are, not great, to be honest. The energy prices have increased substantially, and are now driving our chemical industry bankrupt.

        Edit: I do not dispute the climate change. I am only highlighting impacts of current policy.

        • trhway 16 minutes ago
          >I like how balanced their energy mix is. It is very obvious that China is optimizing for capacity and availability. There isn't really a push for clean energy sources for political, or climate, reasons. They are deployed when it makes sense, backed up by robust coal and nuclear sources.

          yes, they don't seem to fall for the "solar is unstable" trap and recognize new reality - the solar + wind smoothed by nuclear/gas is the new baseline

          • boelboel 12 minutes ago
            You mean + coal, they don't have a meaningful amount of nuclear (just under 5% of electricity mix and 2% of energy). 50% of electricity is coal.
      • spacington 27 minutes ago
        Yeah and the richest person on the planet with full vertical integration (with partner) Elon musk and Tesla aka solar roof and power wall wants to sell DC in space and hasn't fixed any use of gas turbine for Colossus 1&2.

        Without enforcement it will happen continuously with snail pace

      • PunchyHamster 53 minutes ago
        solar farms are worst kind of power source for constant loads like datacenters running AI training
        • adornKey 24 minutes ago
          Why? Unlike loads involving a real physical process there is absolutely no need for AI-training to be constant.
        • alex_duf 44 minutes ago
          I'm hoping the kind of gas turbines being installed on these datacenters are capable of quickly responding to a load change, meaning the primary source of energy could be solar during the day and complement when there isn't enough energy.

          But I haven't looked into where these datacenter are being placed, I'm assuming that although solar is cheap now, the surface needed would make the purchase of nearby land probably not worth it. These new categories of datacenters are becoming very energy dense...

        • spacington 25 minutes ago
          Solar power still can take a certain amount of load from any other source and saving money and CO2 while doing so.

          And grid battery works and is cheap enough now.

        • numpad0 37 minutes ago
          but you can't trust especially hyperscalers with securely sealed HEUs in shipping containers
        • trhway 43 minutes ago
          you're just incorrect. You probably missed 2 points :

          - battery storage

          - and in the article

          "However, AI labs and some hyperscalers have relaxed those requirements as there is now a lower uptime tolerance applied to both inference and training, not just training. Many of Meta’s self-built AI datacenters, for example, target just two nines of uptime and forgo backup generators entirely, as detailed in our Industrials Model."

        • actionfromafar 44 minutes ago
          That's why we are getting clean, beautiful coal the likes of which nobodys ever seen before!
    • logicchains 25 minutes ago
      By that logic almost any kind of economic development is an ecological disaster because it uses power.
    • rapsey 24 minutes ago
      This is a defeatist EU attitude that leads to the worse outcomes. Expensive power and a failing economy.

      There is money now for a huge investment boom, which is what is happening in the US and China. With EU failing completely.

      • logicchains 21 minutes ago
        >There is money now for a huge investment boom

        Not in western Europe, because they spent almost all their excess economic output over the past few decades on welfare/transfer payments.

        • rapsey 19 minutes ago
          That was my point. We in the EU are destroying ourselves. The US is racing ahead and investing in all kinds of power generation technologies.
    • marcyb5st 53 minutes ago
      And especially terrible for the communities that have to live with gas turbines or other local power generators as neighbors. Noise and air pollution constantly [1].

      But fuck them, they are poor people so we don't care about them /s .

      Additionally, people against data centers are accused of being paid by China [2]

      [1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/feb/13/elon-mus... [2] https://fortune.com/2026/06/10/kevin-oleary-trump-administra...

      • trhway 37 minutes ago
        you can't put an ADU, yet, you can put in 200MW generating capacity.
  • felixdoerp 25 minutes ago
    I am interested to see how this plays out and what will happen to potentially stranded assets. Not even talking about outdated chips but all these gas turbines. I appreciate what this push can do to the built out of grids etc.
  • loadcurve 2 hours ago
    [flagged]